FX MARKET REPORT 05.08.2020
GBP/USD gained further losses on a breakdown of the 1.2970 level overnight however snapped the losing streak ahead of UK Services PMI coming out this morning and Bank of England Monetary Policy Report tomorrow. The pair also cheers the broad US dollar weakness due to the government’s failure of announcing a new relief package from the coronavirus pandemic, finding support at 1.3070 heading into this morning’s European open. The Telegraph reported that the UK chancellor Sunak could hike business rates for ‘most valuable properties’. “Currently, the levy is not charged on the first £125,000 of the property selling price, with a 2 percent rate up to £250,000 and 5 percent on the next £675,000”. Analysts see Sterling positive from the news even though fears of the lager wave are somehow expected as British schools are about to open. The British currency, blast past 1.3080 and surged to a high of 1.3170 last Friday, is now testing fizzled upside momentum below 1.31 before the economic data at 9:30 London Time. While we have expected GBP to strengthen since 1.2670 (around two weeks ago), we held the view that the Pound could possibly to move up but limited at 1.3150. The subsequent rapid pull-back has diminished the uptrend impetus significantly and this coupled with overbought conditions suggest the rally in GBP could be coming to an end soon. GBP/EUR was lower by 0.3% at 1.1070 as of 8am London Time. Today’s losses take the exchange rate lower for the weekly by 0.35%. EUR/USD has now moved into a consolidation theme, likely between 1.16 and 1.19. The pair rises to 1.1816 during the Asian session overnight, extending the previous day’s establishment to hit a three-day high as the US dollar weakens across the board. Having said that, the euro/dollar buyer remain cautious ahead of the much-awaited US job data releasing on Friday. Analysts at Danske Bank offer their short-term outlook on EUR/USD, considering Fed’s reflation narrative, which will keep the greenback pressured. Worries over virus developments outside the US have started to surface, so is now the time to get EUR negative again? We doubt that we will witness the large-scale closures seen during the spring and yesterday’s price action suggests that one probably needs to look for US rate rises and/or tech outperformance to get very negative on EUR/USD short term. The Eurozone Retail Sales and Services PMIs could entertain the pair traders before Friday’s US data. While the 1.1700-1695 area restricts the pair’s near-term downside, bulls may pause for a check around 1.1910 before attacking the 1.2000 threshold. The greenback continued its drop yesterday in what may turn out to be very temporary recovery. Pandemic woes in the US whilst ten-year Treasury yields continued their drop, sliding more than 6 percent. Economists predict that the US economy could fall off a cliff if the US administration does not offer a plan after stimulus package that ended on Friday. The early consensus for the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to recede from 2,369K to 1,500K on Friday, which in-turn can extern additional downward pressure on the greenback. Over 40% of the renters in the States are reportedly at risk of eviction if they cannot pay their rent. It is worrying that the Congress will agree on a further stimulus by the end of this week. The non-manufacturing ISM and ADP scheduled for release this afternoon, where we are more likely to see dollar negative signals if the figures come out as market expectation. The dollar index is trading 0.3% lower at 93.067 not far away from the two-year low of 92.523 registered last week. USD/JPY was down 0.1% at 105.64 whilst AUD/USD continued its upward trend at 0.7184 testing a one-year high of 0.7220.
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GBP/USD gained further losses on a breakdown of the 1.2970 level overnight however snapped the losing streak ahead of UK Services PMI coming out this morning and Bank of England Monetary Policy Report tomorrow. The pair also cheers the broad US dollar weakness due to the government’s failure of announcing a new relief package from…